Short-haul airlines in decline, and passenger rail is the solution

Northeast Alabama Regional Airport

In his appearance before the House Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure today, NARP President Ross Capon made an important point about the state of the short-distance aviation market, and what industry trends mean for intercity travel.

With air carriers’ profit margins eroded by rising fuel prices, there has been a spate of stories in the past few weeks about airlines getting out of the business of short-haul flights. In his statement, Capon identified two such pieces:

• The Associated Press reported on November 27 that “[t]he little planes that connect America’s small cities to the rest of the world are slowly being phased out. Airlines are getting rid of these planes — their least-efficient — in response to the high cost of fuel. Delta, United Continental, and other big airlines are expected to park, scrap or sell hundreds of jets with 50 seats or fewer in coming years. Small propeller planes are meeting the same fate. The loss of those planes is leaving some little cities with fewer flights or no flights at all… [Jet fuel prices are] at $3.16 per gallon today, up from 78 cents in 2000. That’s changed the economics of small planes…”
• Two days later, the AP reported that “US Airways’ round-trip fare from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia will jump nearly 500 percent early next year once Southwest Airlines drops its nonstop service between the two cities. The nonrefundable round trip fare, not including taxes and fees, is now $118, but will jump to $698 after Southwest ends its service on Jan. 8, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Tuesday [Nov. 29]

The private sector is confirming something NARP has long warned of: rising fuel prices are irrevocably changing the way Americans travel. So think about this: Department of Energy statistics show that even undercapitalized Amtrak is 14% more energy efficient per passenger-mile than domestic airlines (Amtrak uses 2,435 British Thermal Units per passenger-mile, compared to airlines 2,826 BTUs). As Capon pointed out, these trends mean “unless passenger rail development is strangled by inadequate funding, demand for trains will continue to rise.”

Kevin Brubaker, Deputy Director at the Environmental Law & Policy Center, came to the same insight in a briefing he circulated. By piecing together a number of disconnected reports, Brubaker was able to provide an analysis of the vulnerability of small and mid-sized cities reliant upon a single airline’s bottom line:

Regional jets and turbo props are no longer economical, reported the Washington Post [on November 25]. “Airlines are getting rid of these planes—their least-efficient—in response to the high cost of fuel. Delta, United Continental, and other big airlines are expected to park, scrap or sell hundreds of jets with 50 seats or fewer in coming years. Small propeller planes are meeting the same fate. The loss of those planes is leaving some little cities with fewer flights or no flights at all.” [C]ities with strong passenger rail connections are far better equipped to deal with this trend.
• Travelers on the Northeast Corridor can take Amtrak from cities like Providence, RI, Trenton, NJ, and Wilmington, DE to Baltimore-Washington or Newark International Airports for international and long distance flights.
• Places like Springfield, IL, Bloomington/Normal, IL; and Kalamazoo, MI are less vulnerable, since they will soon have 110 mph higher speed service to major hub airports like Detroit, Chicago, and St. Louis.

Capon and Brubaker are both identifying the same fact: overreliance upon a single mode creates inherent instability in a transportation network. There is a hard fact that critics of government investment in infrastructure fail to recognize: if transportation networks are left entirely to the free market, thousands of rural and suburban communities—lacking the population density to allow for profitable operation—will be stranded. That outcome would be a disaster for the Americans who make those towns their home, especially seniors and people with disabilities, who rely on intercity public transportation to a higher degree.