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Oil consumption since 1980: U.S. way up; Europe down

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

To quote again from that April 20 New York Times article, “Barreling Along: The Big Thirst” [the following quote picks up at the end of the quote in Ross Capon’s April 21 blog entry]:

The United States is the only major industrialized nation to see its oil consumption surge since the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s. This can partly be explained by the fact that the United States has some of the lowest gasoline prices in the world, the least fuel-efficient cars on the roads, the lowest energy taxes, and the longest daily commutes of any industrialized nation. The result: about a quarter of the world’s oil goes to the United States every day, and of that, more than half goes to its cars and trucks.

An accompanying graphic showed the following changes in oil consumption from 1980 to 2007: Denmark -33%; Sweden -32%; Germany -20%; Switzerland -18%; France and Finland -14%; Italy -13%; Japan +0.2%; U.K. +2%; United States +21%.

Last night, Stephen Colbert addressed the various proposals for a summer holiday on the federal gas tax (see last week’s Hotline) through The Wørd, “proposing” free gas for everyone:

Colbert remarks:

I’m sure you’re asking, folks, “How will we pay for unlimited free gas?” Well, the answer is simple:  I don’t care!  Besides, have you forgotten about a little thing called ‘our grandkids’?  Because they are very generous, even though they don’t know it yet.  They can be the generation that walks to work or uses public transportation!  They’ll have to, because without a gas tax to pay for infrastructure, there won’t be any roads.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

NARP on NBC Nightly News

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

NARP Executive Director Ross Capon made an appearance last night on a segment of NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams regarding Amtrak’s increasing popularity, prospects for expansion, and funding and operational challenges.  The soundbite from Capon notes, “To get trains, it takes time, it takes money, and it takes political commitment.” While correspondent Tom Costello misses some technical details (such as saying that Amtrak’s diesel “trains” are 33 years old on average, without specifying which components), he highlights an issue of great national importance as the Nightly News continues its series on America’s infrastructure problems.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

Oil Problems

Monday, April 21, 2008

Since there are occasional claims that current oil prices are not accurately reporting the market, and indeed it is possible that oil could experience another significant price drop short-term, the following information reminds us about long-term realities. And, yes, there would be more production if politics did not prevent modern technology from being applied to the oil industries in many nations, but those political issues are real and don’t show signs of going away.

In yesterday’s Week in Review section in the New York Times, the lead story, “Barreling Along: The Big Thirst,” included this:

Oil prices rose above $116 a barrel last week…"This is the market signaling there is a problem,” said Jan Stuart, global oil economist at UBS, “that there is a growing difficulty to meet demand with new supplies.” …At a recent energy conference, John Hess, the chief executive office of Hess Corporation, the international oil company, warned that an oil crisis was looming if the world didn’t deal with runaway demand and strained supplies…The number of [motor] vehicles in China rose sevenfold between 1990 and 2006, to 37 million…China…is set to overtake the U.S. by around 2015. China could have as many as 400 million vehicles by 2030…The United States is the only major industrialized nation to see its oil consumption surge since the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s…

Among several accompanying graphs, one showed these oil consumption changes since 1980: U.S. +21%; U.K. +2%; Japan +0.2%; France -14%; Germany -20%.

Last week, a Russian oil executive suggested he might not live to see the day when Russian oil production would exceed the 2007 level. A decline in production this year would be Russia’s first in ten years. Russia’s first quarter output this year was down 1% from a year ago. Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter.

Financial Times today reports that Saudi Arabia’s “most powerful policymakers have said [the nation] has put on hold any plans to further increase long-term production capacity from its vast oil fields.” FT said these statements, including one by the king himself, “will harden the view of those skeptics who argue the kingdom is unable to boost production because of the high decline rates at its fields.”

Theories that Saudi oil production has peaked are not new. MSN Money in 2004 ran an article, “Is Saudi Arabia running out of oil?” There is a huge article, “The Breaking Point,” in the NYT Sunday magazine of August 21, 2005, by Peter Maas.

Near the end of his NYT article, Maas wrote:

The most worrisome part of the crisis ahead revolves around a set of statistics from the Energy Information Administration, which is part of the U.S. Department of Energy. The E.I.A. forecast in 2004 that by 2020 Saudi Arabia would produce 18.2 million barrels of oil a day, and that by 2025 it would produce 22.5 million barrels a day. Those estimates were unusual, though. They were not based on secret information about Saudi capacity, but on the projected needs of energy consumers… [Capon note: Today’s FT article quoted above has this from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister: “We are idling at around 9 million barrels per day and we will reach capacity of 12.5m by 2009…As far as I know, all the latest projections, at least up to 2020, do not require anything higher than that.” The article goes on to say that International Energy Agency forecasts “reach a different conclusion.”]

More from the end of Maas’s article:

It would be unfair to blame the Saudis alone for failing to warn of whatever shortages or catastrophes might lie ahead. In the political and corporate realms of the oil world, there are few incentives to be forthright. Executives of major oil companies have been reluctant to raise alarms; the mere mention of scarce supplies could alienate the governments that hand out lucrative exploration contracts and also send a message to investors that oil companies, though wildly profitable at the moment, have a Malthusian long-term future. Fortunately, that attitude seems to be beginning to change. Chevron’s ‘’easy oil is over” advertising campaign is an indication that even the boosters of an oil-drenched future are not as bullish as they once were.

--Ross Capon

Posted by NARP

Malaise in the Airline Industry: Safety, Fuel, and the Economy

Thursday, April 10, 2008

This lead in today’s Financial Times says it all:

Chaos gripped US airports for a third straight day on Thursday as the government’s top transportation watchdog called for changes to airline safety oversight, citing an “overly collaborative” relationship between airlines and their regulator, the Federal Aviation Administration.

Calvin Scovel III, the US transportation department’s inspector general, made his comments before Congress as American Airlines cancelled 900 flights to perform safety checks, stranding thousands of air passengers.

American has canceled over 2,400 flights and counting this week due to potentially faulty wiring in its MD-80s, which comprise one-third of its fleet and form the backbone of its medium-haul domestic fleet.  At least 250,000 passengers have been affected, far more than when Southwest Airlines grounded dozens of 737s last week.  Disruptions are afflicting other airlines as well, and further groundings are likely as the FAA responds to the harsh light being shone on its inspection standards.

On Tuesday, Jon Stewart of The Daily Show responded aptly:

Stewart’s money quote:

It’s all sort of ironic, when you think about it.  When you fly, you are inspected quite thoroughly, whereas the plane itself is, perhaps, occasionally vacuumed.  See, with this administration, if a passenger blows up a plane, it’s a failure in the War on Terror.  But if the plane just blows up on its own, eh, that’s the market self-regulating!

Yes, that’s hyperbole (Jon Stewart is a comedian).  But if the aviation system is generally safe, why on earth would federal regulators start down the dangerous slippery slope of cutting corners, glossing over potential problems, and creating the appearance of impropriety in dealing with the airlines they’re supposed to regulate?

Meanwhile, external economic factors have eviscerated the viability of several airlines, while many survivors are trimming their capacity (for more coverage, see last week’s Hotline).  Yesterday oil prices (Nymex West Texas Intermediate) surged to a record $112.15 a barrel before settling at $110.87, even though US demand over the past four weeks was 0.4% below the same period a year ago.  Oil was $52 a barrel in January 2007.  Here is a quick list of airlines that are now history, a list that is bound to grow:

December 26, 2007 – Maxjet Airways (offering London-USA business class service) files for bankruptcy protection
March 31, 2008 – Aloha Airlines ends passenger services after more than 60 years
March 31, 2008 – Champion Air (Minneapolis-based charter operator) announces flights will end from May 31
April 3, 2008 – ATA Airlines ends service, files for bankruptcy protection
April 5, 2008 – Skybus, start-up low-cost carrier which had 65 new Airbus A319 jets on order, ends service
April 9, 2008 – Oasis Hong Kong, budget carrier, ends service after 17 months

So far, Amtrak revenues do not appear to have been hurt by the economic downturn (or recession), and fuel prices probably are driving some business to Amtrak.  This will likely hasten as airlines are forced to raise fares and further reduce capacity to stay in the black.

Intrepid blogger Aaron Donovan has noted that passengers trapped in the current nightmare at American’s hub at O’Hare have the option of Amtrak’s hub at Chicago Union Station, an easy ride away on the CTA Blue Line.  Even taking a leisurely-paced long-distance train would be a faster option for many people than waiting for the next available flight, whenever that might be.  And some passengers are indeed taking advantage of the train option.

Exhibit A:

[Amtrak spokeswoman Tracy] Connell says ridership has gone through the roof out of the Chicago area because of all the cancellations at O’Hare Airport. Some of its trains have seen up to a 60 percent boost in riders.

Exhibit B:

Amtrak has seen a spike in passengers since the flight cancellations began earlier in the week, especially in the Northeast, spokesman Cliff Cole said.

“Our ridership was heavy yesterday, is heavy today and is likely to be heavy tomorrow, based on our reservations,” Cole said Thursday.

Once again, Amtrak is proving its value and relevance by providing redundancy in a fragile transportation system.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

Students Continue Push for California HSR

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Following up on my last post, momentum is building for California’s High Speed Rail plans, and students from the High Speed Rail Spring Break have proudly led the charge.

NARP At-Large Director Dennis Lytton caught up with them on the south steps of Los Angeles City Hall on March 27th where they were rallying with Los Angeles City Councilmember Tom LaBonge, the L.A. City Council’s leading supporter of passenger rail.

According to University of California, Davis freshman Jessica Lam, “A lot of people were skeptical about us spending our spring break this way,” she continued, “It’s been so much fun . . . we’re biking and carpooling.  And we believe in High Speed Rail.”

Meanwhile in the past week, a poll demonstrated strong majority support—58%—for the November bond measure (passage requires a simple majority).  Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) also softened his position on the measure as the State Assembly considers placing a measure on the ballot that would require aggressively seeking private financing.  Perhaps he is beginning to realize that he could best realize his legacy as a “Green governor” by supporting the one project that would do more to radically shape California’s environmental future in a positive way than any other.

As for the students, here are photos from their tour (click here to see their album):

Here’s a short video from the first two days of the tour:

For background, here’s a promotional video commissioned by the HSR Authority:

Here’s a story from Quest on PBS affiliate KQED:

Finally, for a neat Google Map of the proposed route and stations, see this VentureBeat post.

For the latest developments, be sure to follow Robert Cruickshank’s California High Speed Rail Blog.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

Student Action and Rail Advocacy: The Next Generation

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

This week, college students organized through California Student PIRG are traversing the state on a High Speed Rail Spring Break to heighten awareness and build support for California’s HSR plans.  A $9 billion ballot initiative to fund initial construction is expected to be on the General Election ballot in November.  These students are answering a higher sense of purpose through their efforts:

“I’m spending my spring break on a road trip, but not to Cabo,” said Jenn Engstrom, a second-year student at University of California at Berkeley.

Gambit Ramos, an organizer staff member from University of California, Irvine, came with his red bicycle, bearing a sticker reading, “I’d rather be riding high-speed rail.”

“This is a truly grassroots effort that will bring California into the 21st Century,” said city Supervisor Aaron Peskin.

But young people don’t have to wait until college to make a difference, as the students of Crawfordsville High School in Indiana demonstrated.

For any teenager who is interested in becoming a more informed and empowered advocate for trains and transit in general, here’s a wonderful opportunity that doesn’t come every day: The American Public Transportation Association is hosting Teening Up for a Greener World: A Youth Summit to Advance Public Transportation.  The three-day summit will take place June 22-24 at Catholic University in Washington, DC, and will include seminars, tours, and a day on Capitol Hill.  APTA will underwrite 100% of the travel, program, and living expenses for program participants.  There are 50 spots available for high school juniors and seniors 18 years old and younger.  We strongly encourage all interested teenagers to apply!  Applications can be printed from the web site and are due by April 25.

Rail advocacy has been a personal journey for me.  It started at the age of 9, when I wrote a letter to Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan asking him what he would do under public ownership of the abandoned Southern Pacific Burbank Branch (which is now the Metro Orange Line).  To the mayor’s credit, he responded and personally signed the letter!  My awareness of the importance of transportation issues grew, and at the age of 14 I joined NARP and a state organization.

If your interest in promoting trains started at a young age, how did you first get involved?  Do you have any thoughts on how to build a rail advocacy movement that the next generation of the traveling public can sustain?

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

Transit Helps Fight Climate Change

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Art Guzzetti of the American Public Transportation Association gave the shortest presentation at a recent Washington conference, but one with the most relevance to public transit advocates.

He asked, “How much oil does transit save?”

Answer: the equivalent of 300,000 gas station fill-ups daily, or 34 supertankers leaving the Middle East 11 days (34 in a year), or total U.S. imports from Kuwait in a year. But that’s just direct savings. Multiply by a factor of three to reflect indirect benefits, such as the more energy-efficient, denser real estate development that transit enables.

“By how much does transit reduce carbon emissions?” Transit directly saves 6.9 million metric tons annually. Taking into account indirect savings, this number jumps to 37 million metric tons.

He also noted that, in a typical household, just one person switching their commute from automobile to transit would reduce the carbon footprint of that household by 10%. And if that household is able to get by with one less car overall, the carbon footprint of that household will be reduced 30%. There are few household choices that have an impact of this magnitude.

The conference was the “First Transportation Convention,” held March 5-7 in Washington, DC. The conference was organized by the City of Irving, Texas, “as an extension of the annual Transportation Summit held in August” in Texas.

--Ross Capon

Posted by NARP

Advertising you can’t buy!

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Garrison Keillor, host of the weekly, nationwide radio show A Prairie Home Companion, began his Saturday, February 23 broadcast from Winona State University with a monologue that included a huge boost for train travel.  You can listen to his exact words at the program page.

Here’s what I remember.  After half-joking that southeastern Minnesota is the place you would take folks if you wanted them to believe Minnesota is a scenic state, he said he had come down from St. Paul on the train Friday morning.  He said it’s a wonderful experience, getting on at 8 AM, going to the dining car, rolling along the Mississippi and having breakfast with nice strangers—in this case, a Lutheran minister and his wife from Rockford, IL.

--Ross Capon

Posted by NARP

Railroads and our National Parks

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Amy Jewel at Triplepundit has penned a fantastic, brief history illustrating the role that railroads had in securing the establishment of the National Park Service.  While she rightly pointed out that Amtrak remains a key (and environmentally friendly) link to many National Parks, Amtrak and the NPS continue to promote awareness of the importance of National Parks and their connection to railroads through the Trails & Rails narrative guide program.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

PBS “American Experience” Program on Grand Central Terminal

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

The PBS American Experience program on New York City’s Grand Central Terminal is now available for viewing online.  Penn Station’s beaux arts station building was demolished and plans to upgrade the busiest train station in the country to be more than a glorified basement after more than 40 years may be in jeopardy.  Fortunately, Grand Central’s original station building was preserved and still serves hundreds of thousands of passengers (mainly commuters) daily.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

Annual NARP Membership Meetings Underway--Attend Yours!

Monday, February 25, 2008

Regional meetings for NARP members are getting under way.  These meetings are a great way to meet other rail advocates, hear informative speakers, and also meet NARP staff, officers and directors.  A full schedule of upcoming NARP membership meetings, with confirmed speakers can be found in the events calendar over on the NARP homepage.

I always look forward to attending regional meetings.  I get to meet NARP members and tell them face-to-face what’s going on in Washington...both on Capitol Hill and within the organization they help support!  This year I’ll be traveling to Schenectady (Region 2), Omaha (Region 10), and Milwaukee (Region 7).  Ross has already been to Dallas (Region 9) and Philadelphia (Region 3) and will go to Tampa (Region 5), and Toledo (Region 6).  Our Communications Associate, Matthew Melzer, just got back from Portland yesterday evening (Region 8) and will be speaking in Baltimore (Region 4) in a couple of weeks.  Last, but certainly not least, NARP President George Chilson will speak in Boston (Region 1) and Sacramento (Region 12).

Attend your NARP Regional membership meeting; trust me, you’ll have a great time!

-Dave Johnson

Posted by NARP

CBS Evening News: “Train Travel On The Rise”

Monday, February 11, 2008

In this piece from last night’s CBS Evening News Sunday, correspondent Michelle Miller highlights the inherent advantages of train travel, and Amtrak’s ongoing funding challenges.  Amtrak President and CEO Alex Kummant says he feels Amtrak could grow ridership “between 50 and 100 percent in the next 15 years.” This story mainly focuses on the Northeast Corridor (and cites NARP-provided on-time performance statistics for inside and outside of the Corridor).  But Amtrak services must continue to grow across the country to sustain the continuing renaissance that has made trains more widely accepted and popular than they have been in decades.  Amtrak is a national system and needs to grow more relevant and useful on a systemwide basis.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

It’s Super Tuesday; Do You Know Where the Candidates Stand?

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Because transportation has played such a minuscule role as a campaign issue thus far (as the Los Angeles Times has noted), it can be difficult for a concerned voter to gauge where the candidates stand on improving our nation’s transportation system.  Even candidates that support balanced transportation do not necessarily elaborate with policy details.  Nonetheless, here’s a roundup of the public record thus far.

NARP thanks member James Toy for pointing us to this St. Paul Pioneer Press feature that asked each campaign, “What would your candidate do to improve the nation’s transportation infrastructure?”

Streetsblog compiled statements of the Republicans and Democrats, and covered a transportation and infrastructure forum attended by candidates’ representatives.

Smart Growth Around America also compiled the positions on “energy, smart growth, and climate change” of the Republicans and Democrats.

Ultimately, candidate statements do not necessarily equal action in office.  But the more citizens let them know that investing in a balanced transportation system is crucial to the future health of our economy, environment, and quality of life, the more likely they are to remember our cause in the future.  A commitment to strengthen our transportation network, especially with more and better train service, is a highly beneficial policy that also happens to be politically rewarding.

--Matthew Melzer

Posted by NARP

As Promised: Transportation Advocates Statement to the Candidates

Saturday, February 02, 2008

Following up my post from yesterday, here is the statement to the Presidential candidates that I referenced… --DRJ

To the Candidates for President and the Party Platform Committees, we submit:

The St. Louis Statement
on the Crisis in American Transportation
At The Carmichael Conference*

The silence of those now running for the office of President on the growing crisis in our nation’s transportation infrastructure is deafening. We have all heard about the crisis in the economy, and changes in the earth’s climate brought on by global warming, but we have heard nothing about one key element that underlies both of those issues: the movement of goods and people, our very freedom of mobility. Yet, few national issues offer a greater opportunity for imaginative change.

We speak to those candidates now, today. We are from both political parties, and from no political party. We are from New England, and California, and Louisiana, and Illinois, and places in between, gathered this day in St. Louis for the inaugural Carmichael Conference* on the Future of American Transportation, to advocate for the renewal of that infrastructure. We respectfully ask each one of you:

• Do you understand that transportation must be treated as a system, not merely a collection of competing modes, when setting and executing policy
• How do you propose to restore our transportation system to health?
• What are you going to do, specifically, to obtain the funding needed to do that?

As both advocates and professional executives, as both elected and appointed officials from around this country, as American citizens, we call on you to engage this issue, and make it an integral part of your campaign. As former American Airlines CEO Robert Crandall said in his very powerful address to us: “It’s late in the game, and we are far past the time when our national leaders should have laid out, debated, and implemented an integrated, carefully thought-out and effective national plan for developing and deploying an optimized national transportation system.”

The American people need rational choices when it comes to transportation, and those choices must be adequately and intelligently funded and maintained to make it all work. In particular, an efficient transportation system and robust rail, air, coastal/riverine, port, and highway components will sharply reduce both our dependence on foreign oil, and the high price we pay for it. Highly fuel-efficient, environmentally-friendly transportation modes, such as rail, should especially not be overlooked.

You are asking us to select you as the leader of our country. Very well: we ask you to lead. Seize this issue, and make it central to your campaign, as it is to every American’s life. Thus far it has been virtually ignored.  We ask that to change, starting now.

* Convened January 28-29, 2008, at St. Louis, by the National Corridors Initiative with the help and support of the Sierra Club, The National Association of Railroad Passengers, and the following organizations: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, American Public Transportation Association, American Road and Transportation Builders, Association of American Railroads, Association for Public Transportation, Bombardier Transit, Connex/Veolia Transportation, InTrans Incorporated: A New Direction in Transportation Advocacy, Midwest High Speed Rail Association, Providence & Worcester Railroad, The Surdna Foundation, Train/Riders NorthEast, Victoria Transportation Policy Institute, Virginians for High Speed Rail, and named in honor of former Federal Railroad Administrator Gilbert Carmichael, one of America’s leading transportation advocates who continues actively to champion transportation intermodalism.

Posted by NARP

NCI Conference Explores Outreach to Presidential Candidates

Friday, February 01, 2008

I had the privilege of attending the The Carmichael Conference On The Future of American Transportation For North American Transportation Advocates and Leaders this past Monday and Tuesday in St. Louis.  The event, sponsored by the National Corridors Initiative, was named in honor of former FRA Administrator Gilbert Carmichael, who continues to this day to advocate for a strong, balanced transportation system that includes intercity passenger rail.

The main objective of the meeting was to “develop a unified Transportation Advocates’ Statement on the Future of American Transportation for presentation to all of the Candidates for the Presidency of the United States.” I’ll share that with you as soon as it is finalized.  You’ll see that NARP was one of the sponsors of the conference and advocates’ statement.

One of the consistent themes of speakers and participants--including myself--was that the Presidential candidates have not given any attention to transportation in their campaigns.  The group came to consensus that this was a) not a partisan issue as neither party has spoken out and b) there are two main reasons why.

First, transportation is neither an emotional nor a “sexy” issue.  It doesn’t grab headlines.  If anything, Americans have become complacent with the problems we have and while they may complain, they just accept it “cause that’s the way it is.”

Second, fixing the transportation mess we have will take money.  A lot of money.  It will almost certainly require raising the gas tax.  How many politicians do you know that have run on a platform of raising taxes and had a successful campaign?  If anything, the candidates have to compete to see who can go the lowest on tax cut promises.  That doesn’t mean that there aren’t problems to solve.  But, the bottom line is that it is incredibly difficult to drum up support for something that’s going to cost a lot of money in the context of a political campaign.

NARP has reached out to the Presidential candidates and, along the lines of my discussion above, have received no response.  But rest assured we will keep putting the message out there.  It’s quite possible that issues will become more focused and refined as the field shrinks to two viable candidates in each party and in the near future to one.

--Dave Johnson

Posted by NARP

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• Oil consumption since 1980: U.S. way up; Europe down
• NARP on NBC Nightly News
• Oil Problems
• Malaise in the Airline Industry: Safety, Fuel, and the Economy
• Students Continue Push for California HSR
• Student Action and Rail Advocacy: The Next Generation
• Transit Helps Fight Climate Change
• Advertising you can’t buy!
• Railroads and our National Parks
• PBS “American Experience” Program on Grand Central Terminal

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