NARP Blog

Friday, May 22, 2009

Tuesday’s much-anticipated presidential announcement of higher nationwide fuel economy standards for automobiles was nearly universally praised by auto manufacturers, organized labor, environmentalists and consumer groups, and is indeed a step in the right direction. However, the new rules may have unintended negative consequences, particularly for those interested in a future where Americans are less reliant on the car, and these should not be overlooked.

Safe Climate Campaign director Daniel Becker pointed out on NPR’s Diane Rehm Show Wednesday morning that the new standards apply to cars that are actually bought, not just to those that are in showrooms. Therefore, in order to comply with the law, the auto industry must sell more new cars, potentially with help from a provision in the climate bill that would give consumers incentives to trade in their current vehicles. Becker also noted (as does USA Today’s Open Road blog) that the laws of economics generally dictate that when the cost of an activity goes down, people tend to do marginally more of it. Therefore, by making it cheaper to drive on a per-mile basis, a gas-sipping auto fleet may lead to an increase in driving, which, while it may not have the same impact on carbon emissions, would certainly worsen the many other consequences of auto dependence: congestion, sprawl, and parking problems, to name a few. Plus, the new line of fuel-efficient cars may actually be less safe, and when people buy less gas, the key source of revenue for highway maintenance (and some rail and transit services) is further depleted.

Higher gas prices (which will inevitably return) and greater awareness about global warming have led not only to increased demand for fuel-efficient vehicles, but also for more travel alternatives. If public policy were to promote one without simultaneously addressing the other, it would be a step in the opposite direction from one that would lead to an energy-secure and livable future. Luckily, federal leaders have taken steps towards improving the automobile alternatives for which Americans are clamoring, but a guaranteed long-term source of funding for these projects is still missing. Congress will eventually have to either increase the gas tax (a move that is sure to be resisted mightily) or find other sources of funding for our transportation infrastructure.

Continued after the jump.

—Malcolm Kenton

At the same time, federal policy must move further in the direction of treating transportation more holistically, transforming our system into one that enhances mobility in a way that is sustainable and enhances our quality of life, one in which passenger rail should be a central figure. The Obama Administration and key lawmakers have indicated that they are ready to lead such a transformation, but following through on their stated goals means making sure that each piece of the puzzle fits. As it stands, the new fuel economy standards are a slight mismatch.

It remains to be seen what effect the new standards will have on another key piece of the puzzle: American manufacturing jobs. As currently structured, the government’s bailout of the auto industry does not prevent a sizable amount of its work from being shipped overseas; this may have been a factor in persuading the Big Four to support the new standards. As Americans continue to drive less and turn to alternative ways of getting around, our industrial base will need to be restructured so that it continues to employ American workers in making the things we will need more of. The Nation’s Max Fraser has a good prescription for a new industrial policy:

During World War II, the Roosevelt administration helped keep workers on the job and factories humming at full capacity by buying tens of thousands of planes and tanks from a quickly retooled auto industry. Today’s planes and tanks could be the buses, subway cars, trains and light-rail cars that would spur the development of new systems of mass transit and help shift the country away from its unsustainable carbon dependency.

Rail and transit advocates have our work cut out for us. NARP will continue to work to see that policymakers connect all the dots and realize the full potential of an interconnected, sustainable mobility system that depends on robust passenger rail and transit networks.

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Connecting the Dots for Sustainable Transportation

Friday, May 22, 2009

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