Hotline #643

Hotline #643
February 26, 2010

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (or “stimulus bill”) passed last year to create jobs and ease the economic woes of the recession created as many as 2.1 million jobs in the last quarter of 2009 alone, according to a report released earlier this week by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The report attributes a 3.5% increase in economic activity and a 2.1% reduction in the unemployment rate to ARRA.  The report predicts that 2010 will see the stimulus bill’s greatest impact, with an increase in GDP of between 1.4 and 4%, and a decrease in the unemployment rate of between 0.7 and 1.8 %.

This analysis by the CBO, an independent, non-partisan governmental research entity, will give ammunition to advocates of the stimulus bill as a job creation tool.  Opponents of ARRA have pointed to the persistence of the recession, and the accompanying high unemployment rates, as proof that the $787 billion bill was flawed and ineffectual.  The CBO report explicitly contradicts this.

“In CBO’s judgment, that outcome reflects greater-than-projected weakness in the underlying economy rather than lower-than-expected effects” of the stimulus, the research office said.

Additionally, the CBO points to the infrastructure elements as the most effective, saying that direct government expenditures created the most jobs.  The CBO identified tax cuts for the wealthy and a first-time home buyer’s tax credit as the least effective provisions.

The CBO’s report will help advocates of the House’s version of the next job creation bill, which—unlike the Senate version that focuses primarily on tax credits—contains infrastructure spending (see the following story).  The House version has $800 million for Amtrak fleet modernization.  This new data should help train and transit advocates to convince undecided members of Congress that rail investment creates jobs.


Two months after the House passed a $154 billion jobs bill, the Senate responded with its own, much smaller version of February 24, disappointing transportation advocates with a dearth of infrastructure investment.

The Senate version is a $15 billion package containing mostly tax credits for businesses designed to promote hiring.  It was drafted by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (NV) as an alternative to Senators Max Baucus (D-MT) and Chuck Grassley’s (R-IA) $85 billion proposal, though Baucus’ version was believed to have enough Republican support to pass.

Reid has received criticism from both Republicans and Democrats for narrowing the bill: from the opposition party for cutting out the extension of certain tax cuts covered in the Baucus-Grassley proposal, and from members of his own party for ignoring infrastructure spending. 

Reid has already begun work on a second package which will contain many of the tax credit extensions that were in Baucus-Grassley, and 30 day extensions of key federal programs, including the highway program.  However, the Senate failed to pass the bill before recessing for the weekend, due to a procedural hold placed by Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY), who—citing the rising national debt—is demanding that the funding come from already-appropriated but unobligated stimulus dollars rather than new money.

This means that 24 hours after expiration of the highway program—February 28—the government will no longer have the authority to distribute funds to states for roadwork.  Additionally, many employees of the Federal Highway Administration, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and all employees of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration will be placed on furlough until Congress passes an extension.

House leaders—already unhappy with Reid’s bill—are exasperated at the hold-up in the Senate. 

“As long as the Senate is a dysfunctional institution and they allow someone to stand up and filibuster, yeah we’ll have a very bad result,” Peter A. DeFazio (D-OR), chairman of the highway subcommittee of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, told Congressional Quarterly.

The procedural rules of the Senate guarantee Mr. Bunning’s right to obstruct, and the only way to bypass his filibuster threat is by filing cloture, a process that (if 60 votes exist) would take at least until the end of next week to conclude.


Amtrak service throughout the Northeast has been disrupted by yet another heavy snowstorm, with weather services warning that the New York City region should expect anywhere from 13 to 30 inches by the end of tonight, with high winds expected to create disruptions among the power grid.

The Times Union is reporting the following disruptions along the New York-Albany/Rensselaer Empire Corridor for Friday:

Southbound trains to be canceled are No. 230, which leaves Rensselaer at 5:10 a.m.; No. 234, a 6:55 a.m. departure; No. 238, which leaves at 12:05 p.m., and No. 242, which leaves at 3:15 p.m. All other southbound trains will operate.

Northbound trains that are canceled are No. 233, which is scheduled to leave Penn Station at 11:45 a.m.; No. 235, scheduled to leave at 2:15 p.m.; No. 237, scheduled to leave at 4:40 p.m.; and No. 243, which leaves at 8:50 p.m. The remaining northbound trains are scheduled to operate.

Amtrak crews are busy working to clear tracks and make the necessary repairs.  This is the third severe snowstorm to rock the East Coast this winter, however, and resources are strained.

Amtrak representatives are reporting that they have a high degree of success rescheduling passengers whose trains have been canceled.


The planned California high speed rail line could divert as many as 6 million passengers from San Francisco Bay Area airports onto trains, according to a study commissioned by a regional planning group.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission study—carried out by SH&E, an independent, Virginia-based aviation firm—predicted that as the region’s airports would see as much as a 6.1% decline in traffic in the coming decades as passengers migrate to high-speed trains.

“There will be a giant sucking sound as you hear, especially business travelers, vacate airplanes in favor of high-speed rail, Henry Harteveldt, an industry analyst with Forrester Research in San Francisco, told the San Jose Mercury News. “It will be less susceptible to delays, more efficient, (will travel from) city center to city center, and there are just some additional pleasantries.”

The report predicts that, without a high speed rail line, airports would carry about 100 million passengers.  With the option of high speed trains, however, each airport will lose an average of 2 million customers.  San Jose would see the greatest reduction, with a 12% drop in projected passengers by 2035, followed a 9 percent loss at Oakland and a 4 percent diversion at San Francisco.

Airports, however, are sanguine about the effect trains would have their future business, and have been publicly supportive of the high speed rail line.  High speed rail stations are planned at the state’s major air terminals, and airports see the line as a way to reduce the inefficiencies in the system and focus on air travel’s strength: moving passengers quickly to destinations further than 500 miles away.

“We recognize that if high-speed rail does affect our short-haul passenger traffic at the airport in the future, that makes it even more important to protect the airport’s ability to serve long haul routes in the future,” David Vossbrink, spokesman for Mineta San Jose International Airport, told the Mercury News.

The report estimates a city center-to-city center travel time of 2 ½ hours from San Francisco to L.A., and assumes a ticket price of $105 (compared to a $125 comparable airfare).


Student and public interest groups have launched an online petition to restore Amtrak’s North Coast Hiwatha to create jobs, increase travel options, and reduce transportation-related pollution. You can sign the petition here.

The petition was created by the Associated Students of the University of Montana Transportation group, in partnership with Montana Public Interest Research Group (MontPIRG).  The students want to emphasize that it’s not just a provincial interest.

“We want people to know it’s not just Montanans who want this service,” said Nancy Wilson, director of ASUM Transportation. “There are really a lot of people.”

As of writing, 1,200 people had signed up.  And the effort already has some big-name supporters, including Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) and Missoula Councilman Dave Strohmaier, who is currently working to secure the support of the Missoula Area Chamber of Commerce.


An Amtrak Acela train struck and killed two teenage girls on February 25, disrupting train service along the Northeast Corridor.  It is the third deadly pedestrian accident on the NEC in the last two months.

Acela Express no. 2151, on its way from Boston to Washington, hit the two girls three miles south of Philadelphia’s 30th Street Station, at 10:28 a.m.  Trains were halted for an hour while first responders and investigators worked at the scene, and service wasn’t returned to normal until around 1:30 p.m.

Officials have not identified the cause of the tragic deaths, thought they are investigating reports that the girls may have placed themselves in the train’s path intentionally.


The Rail Passenger Association of California and Nevada (RailPAC) has launched a mobile website optimized for smart phones, allowing passengers to better access RailPAC content on the go.  Check it out on your iPhone, Blackberry, Android, or any mobile platform.